Global Coffee Prices Spike Amid Weather Woes in Brazil and Vietnam

Coffee futures surged last week following reports of unusually dry conditions in Brazil’s Arabica-growing regions and heavy rains in Vietnam’s Central Highlands. In New York, December Arabica futures jumped by 3.4%, reaching 390.75 cents per pound — their highest level in nearly three weeks. In London, November robusta contracts closed up 4.7%, ending the session at $4,527 per tonne. Comunicaffe International

In Brazil, the dry spell is occurring during the flowering phase, a delicate period critical to upcoming yields. Some analysts warn that heat stress could reduce blooms and affect the 2026/27 crop. Comunicaffe International+1 Meanwhile in Vietnam, remnants of Typhoon Bualoi have unleashed heavy rainfall in coffee-growing areas, raising fears of crop damage just weeks before harvest. Comunicaffe International At the same time, meteorologists increasingly expect a La Niña event by late 2025, which could exacerbate dry conditions in South America. Comunicaffe International

Despite recent rallies, broader price trends remain under pressure from abundant global supplies. The International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported that coffee exports in the 2024-25 marketing year rose 0.2% year over year, reaching 127.92 million bags. Nasdaq+1 In Vietnam, export volumes have expanded—Jan–Sep 2025 exports climbed ~10.9%, pushing robusta supplies onto world markets. Nasdaq

But supply data tells a mixed story. ICE-tracked Arabica inventories recently dropped to a 1.5-year low, while robusta stockpiles fell to a 2.5-month low, fueling bullish sentiment. Nasdaq At the same time, Brazil’s Agricultural Agency (Conab) revised its Arabica production estimates downward, signaling potential contraction in output. Nasdaq

Market Implications & Outlook:

• The rally is prompting roasters and buyers to hedge early to secure supplies before further price run-ups.

• Crop damage in Brazil or Vietnam could tighten supplies into 2026 and push premiums on specialty Arabica grades.

• If La Niña intensifies, further weather volatility might intensify price swings.

• However, persistent global surplus and export growth from Vietnam may cap prolonged upside.

Conclusion:

The coffee market is increasingly balanced on a knife-edge: weather risks in major producing nations are colliding with strong export flows. For stakeholders across the supply chain — from farmers to roasters to traders — the coming months will be critical in determining whether coffee shifts into a more bullish regime or settles into volatility.